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Thematic Area 3

DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT

4.0       Introduction

 Disaster risk assessment shall be the first step in planning an effective disaster management.  It shall serve as a guide in all efforts at federal, state, and local levels for disaster risk reduction, and preparedness, prevention and mitigation.  Disaster risk assessment shall examine the likelihood of expected disaster events and their outcomes in vulnerable communities across the country. This shall involve investigating related hazards and conditions of vulnerability that increase the chances of loss.  Therefore, disaster risk assessments shall be undertaken to:

  1.    Anticipate and plan for known hazards or disaster to prevent losses and limit endangering impacts
  2.    Ensure that development initiatives maximize their vulnerability reduction outcomes.

 Disaster risk shall refer to the likelihood of harm or loss due to the action of natural or human-induced hazards and other threats to vulnerable structures, services, areas, communities and households.

  4.1       Objectives

This thematic area shall have the following objectives:

  1. Establish a uniform approach for assessing, planning and monitoring disaster risks at all levels of Government.
  2. Provide the basis for disaster risk reduction; and preparedness, prevention and mitigation interventions undertaken by stakeholders at all levels of government.

 4.2       Disaster Risk Assessment Planning

4.2.1   Disaster risk assessment planning shall be conducted by stakeholders at all levels. Relevant stakeholders shall execute systematic disaster risk assessments planning:

  1.  Prior to the implementation of disaster risk reduction, preparedness or recovery programme at all levels of governance.
  2.  As an integral component of the planning phase for large scale housing, infrastructure or commercial and industrial developments in the country.
  3.   As an integral component of the planning phase for significant initiatives that affect the natural environment
  4.   When the social, economic, infrastructural, environmental, climatic or other indicators suggest changing patterns that increase the risk or likelihood of significant disaster impacts.
  5.   To determine priority disaster risks relevant to their functional areas.

4.2.2   Stages in Disaster Risk Assessment Planning

Disaster risk assessment planning shall include identification and consultation with relevant stakeholders for the:-

  1. Design of assessment tools,
  2. Application of assessment tools for data collection,
  3. Analysis and interpretation of findings, and,
  4. Documentation of findings.

4.3       Disaster Risk Assessment Plan

Disaster risk assessment plan shall be supported with good Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) systems to perform the following:

  1.       Effective disaster risk management and risk reduction planning
  2.       Identifying potential threats that can undermine developments and sustainability,
  3.       Enhancing the incorporation of appropriate disaster risk reduction measures into development         project design and implementation
  4.       Ensuring sustainable development planning
  5.      Identifying high-risk locations, periods and conditions
  6.       Activating timely preparedness and response actions.

4.4       Undertaking Disaster Risk Assessments

A disaster risk assessment shall be undertaken at all levels of governance for specific hazards or disaster that:

  1.   Are likely to affect more than one state, due to their scale and magnitude
  2.   Are likely to occur in most states and may require federal and  other support and intervention due to their recurrent magnitude (high and medium).
  3.  Are of high magnitude and low frequency (for example, desertification, oil spills earthquake, toxic waste, gas flaring, ocean surge, earth tremor, landslide, etc).
  4.   Occur infrequently or seasonally (for example bush fires, flooding) and have the potential to cause severe loss, and require levels of specialized support that might not be available at lower levels of governance.
  5.   Affect neighbouring countries and have consequences for Nigeria, such as, unplanned cross-border movements, events that require humanitarian or other relief assistance, etc.

 4.5       Steps in Disaster Risk Assessment

4.5.1.  Disaster risk assessment shall fulfil the following processes:

  1.   Identifying and analyzing potential hazards and/or threats
  2.   Assessing the conditions of vulnerability that increase the chance of loss
  3.   Identifying elements-at-risk such as, environmental, human, infrastructural, agricultural, industrial, economic and other elements that are exposed to a hazard, and are at risk of loss.
  4.    Determining the level of risk for different situations and conditions
  5.     Helping to set priorities for action

 

4.5.2.  Disaster risk assessment shall be deemed reliable when the following questions are satisfactorily       answered:

  1.   How frequently can one expect an incident or a disaster to happen?
  2.   Which area, communities or households are most at risk?
  3.   What are the likely impacts?
  4.    What are the vulnerabilities, or environmental, structural and socio-economic risk factors that ncrease the severity of the threat?
  5.     What capabilities or resources exist to manage the risk?
  6.     Is the risk becoming more serious?
  7.     Is the risk undermining development progress in the areas, communities and households it affects?
  8.    Is the management of the risk a development priority?
  9.    Does the risk have any cultural implication?
  10.     Are there any other significant risks?

4.5.3.  The stages for assessing disaster risk shall be as follows:

Stage 1:         Identifying specific disaster risk to be assessed

Stage 2:         Analysing disaster risk concerned

Stage 3:         Monitoring disaster risks.

Stage 4:         Evaluating disaster risk assessed, updating and disseminating information to all stakeholders.

 4.5.3.1            Identifying specific disaster risk(s)

This shall include:

 

  1.   Identifying the hazard
  2.   Describing the hazard (causes, frequency, magnitude, speed of onset, affected area and  duration .

  4.5.3.2            Analysing the disaster risk(s)

This shall include: 

  1.     Describing and quantifying vulnerability.
  2.      Estimating likely losses resulting from the impact of hazard and disaster.
  3.      Providing relevant hazard, vulnerability and risk maps.
  4.     Identifying relevant capacities, methods and resources available to manage the risk.

4.5.3.3            Monitoring Disaster Risks

All stakeholders shall have monitoring systems in place that are relevant to their specific functional responsibilities. This shall include monitoring of risks to ensure:

  1. effectiveness of disaster risk reduction initiatives,
  2. changing patterns and new developments in risk profiles,

4.5.3.4            Evaluating disaster risk assessed, updating and disseminating information to all stakeholders.

This shall include:

  1. Estimating the level of risk associated with a specific threat to determine whether the resulting risk is a priority or not.
  2. Prioritization of disaster risks when there are multiple threats to assess.
  3. Determining priority high risk people, households, areas, communities and infrastructures.
  4. Involving holistic and integrated planning and implementation in focussed disaster risk reduction initiatives.
  5. Updating and disseminating risk assessment information.

 4.6       Disaster Risk Assessment Monitoring Tools

The following tools shall be adopted in monitoring disaster risk(s) by all relevant stakeholders:

4.6.1 Hazard tracking: This shall:

  1. Monitor the physical phenomena that can trigger disaster events.
  2. Provide early warning information on approaching adverse conditions.
  3. Track the seasonal build up of hazards and disasters.

4.6.2   Vulnerability monitoring: This shall:

  1. Track the ability of areas, communities, households, critical services and natural environments to resist and withstand external threats.
  2. Provide census data and information on changing social vulnerability patterns in high risk communities.
  3. Routinely collect information on special surveys.
  4. Track local capabilities to absorb recurrent shocks and stresses from disaster.
  5. Track local capacities to resist and recover from threats.

4.6.3   Disaster event tracking: This shall:

  1. Monitor changing patterns in disaster.
  2. Monitor frequencies of disaster incidents.
  3. Establish Early Warning Systems to avert the impending disaster.

4.7       Stakeholders Roles and Responsibilities in Disaster Risk Assessment.

4.7.1   NEMA, SEMA and LEMA shall, within their jurisdiction:

  1. identify specialists, including research institutions, the public, and private sector to be involved in Disaster Risk Assessment.
  2. define the terms of reference in Disaster Risk Assessment.
  3. provide feedback mechanism and define consultation, skills transfer and capacity building processes.
  4. collaborate with relevant stakeholders to validate the methods and findings of disaster risk assessments, in their areas of jurisdiction.
  5. shall be validated by the relevant authorities before any implementation processes.
  6. certified that field consultations have been carried out to authenticate findings.

 4.7.2   NEMA, SEMA, LEMA and other stakeholders shall have clear mechanisms for:

  1.   Assessing, consolidating and updating relevant hazard and vulnerability information on disaster risk specific to their functional areas.
  2.   Partnering with the media to disseminate information to relevant stakeholders and the general public in their domain.
  1. Developing and reviewing their Vulnerability Capacity Analyses (VCAs) to determine if risk conditions have changed detrimentally.

4.8       Guidelines to be disseminated

  1.       i.        Vulnerability Capacity Analysis (VCAs)