0.1 HAZARD RISK SCENARIO AND PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS
0.1.1 Identified Hazards for Planning Assumptions: Flood, collapse of artificial or natural impoundments, drought, epidemics and crises.
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Multi Risk Scenario
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Best case scenario
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Pockets of disasters across the country affecting less than 5000 people
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Most probable scenario
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Identified disasters across Nigeria affecting between 10,000 people
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Worst case scenario
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Any of the identified disasters and its secondary threats affecting up to 500,000
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Table 1: Disaster Scenarios
0.1.2 Scenarios and Planning Assumptions
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Probability of Occurrence
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Flood
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Highly probable, based on meteorological information and research on the imminent collapse of Lake Nyos and other human/nature induced activities
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Drought
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Highly probable due to flood 2010, meteorological prediction for 2011 and crop failure recorded for 2010
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Conflicts (Political unrest/ethno religious crises)
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Highly probable based on 2011 electoral events, thuggery/militia activities electoral campaign activities/political violence and ethno-religious issues
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Epidemics and other health issues/events
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Highly probable, based on recent epidemic trends 2010 and 2011, malnutrition especially in Sahelian States and as secondary threats
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Impact
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- 10,000 people likely to be affected
- Road networks destroyed
- Bridges washed off
- Farmlands flooded: (acreage?)
- Loss of livestock
- Destruction of infrastructure (schools,
houses, health facilities)
- Pollution of water sources
- Disease epidemics Cholera, CSM etc.
- Overall reduction in national productivity
- Food insecurity
- Regional migration (north-south)
- Loss of livelihoods
- Traumatisation
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Geographical areas
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Flood
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Most parts of the country, including communities bordering River Katsina Ala and River Benue (that will be affected by Lake Nyos collapse), River Niger and communities down streams of major dams in the country
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Drought
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North West, North East
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Conflicts
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Most parts of the country (especially NE and SS)
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Epidemics
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Most parts of the country, especially NE,NW and NC,
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Table 2: Scenarios and Planning Assumptions
0.1.3 Summary Target Population for Planning Assumptions
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Summary of Assumed Target Population for Pre-Positioning
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Total Population
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10,000
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Number of persons per household
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4.8
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Total Fertility Rate
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5.4
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Rate of General Health Assumptions (%)
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20
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Number for general health assumptions
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2,000
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Total Fertility Rate
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5.4
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Number of births per month
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45
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Proportion of infants under 1 year (%)
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4.0
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Number of infants under 1 year
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400
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Proportion of children aged 6 to 12 months (%)
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3.0
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Number of children aged 6 to 12 months
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300
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Proportion of children of 12 to 59 months (%)
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12.0
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Number of children aged 12 to 59 months
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1,200
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Proportion of children < 5 years in %
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15.0
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Number of children < 5 years
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1,500
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Proportion of children aged 3 to 6 years (%)
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13.0
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Number of children aged 3 to 6 years
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1,300
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Proportion of children aged 6 months to 14 years (%)
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46.0
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Number of children aged 6 months to 14 years
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4,600
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Proportion of children of 9 months to 15 years (%)
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48.0
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Number of children aged 9 months to 15 years
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4,800
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Percentage of children of primary school age 6 to 11 years (%)
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30.0
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Number of children of primary school age 6 to 11 years
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3,000
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Proportion of pregnant women (%)
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8.8
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Number of pregnant women
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880
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Proportion of lactating women (%)
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9.0
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Number of women lactating
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900
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Rate of malnutrition, moderate & severe (%)
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40.0
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Number of children suffering from moderate & severe malnutrition
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600
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Rate of severe malnutrition among children xx %
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12.0
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Number of children suffering from severe malnutrition
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180
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HIV prevalence rate (%)
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2.7
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Number of people living with HIV/AIDS
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270
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Rate of sexual violence during the first month of crisis in %
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1.0
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Number of victims of sexual violence in the first months of the crisis
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100
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Proportion of people traumatized (%)
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2.0
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Number of people traumatized
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200
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Proportion of unaccompanied children (%)
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1.0
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Number of unaccompanied children
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100
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Table 3: Summary of Target Population for Planning Assumptions
0.1.4 Hazards, Triggers, Early Warning and Monitoring Agencies
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Hazards
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Triggers, Early Warning monitoring indicators
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Relevant Agencies
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Above normal (heavy) Rainfall
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Weather forecasts, Information flow on the rainy season, Observation of the rise in river level
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NIMET, River Basin Authorities, ACMAD
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Release of water from natural and artificial Impoundments
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Alert warning from river basins, alert from EW mechanisms alert from EW mechanisms
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River Basin Authorities
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Conflicts
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Elections, religious uprising, tribal/ethno conflicts and militia/terrorism activities
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IPCR, Security organizations
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Drought
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irregular or little rain, biodiversity loss, depletion of genetic pool, crop failure
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Federal Ministry of Agric, Department of Strategic Grain Reserve, Federal/ Ministry of Environment
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Epidemics
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severe weather conditions, rapid urbanization, weak Sanitation, air and water pollution
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Federal/State MoH, NIMET
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Human Induced
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Proliferation of indiscriminate and artisanal mining, industrial accidents etc.
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Fed. Min of Mines and Steel, FmoH, FMoEnv
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Table 4: Hazards, Triggers, Early Warning and Monitoring Agencies